DFDS – Analysis 2015-04-20

Market value has more than doubled since the beginning of 2013, from 3892 MDKK to 9146 MDKK today. Valuation to high?

- Continuous share buybacks at a high price.
- Goodwill growing from acquisitions.
- Share options diluting current shareholders - not connected to business fundamentals and no downside for the awarded employee.
- Low profitability.

What is this business worth?

Asset value:
Average book value growth at 4,29% annually last 10 years.
Motivated price based on that growth and a requirement of 10% return annually equals a price of 184 DKK/share, leaving a downside of 75%.

Earnings power value:
Income per share is based on comprehensive income. 10 year average ROE is at 6,58%.
10yEPV motivate a price around 285 DKK/share leaving a downside of 61%.

Disclosure: The author had no position when this post/analysis was written.

DFDS-2015-04-20DFDS 2015-04-20

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